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Arsenal – Manchester City (EFL Cup)

Wembley Stadium hosts the so awaited EFL Cup final, with Manchester City and Arsenal being up against each other on Sunday afternoon for another title. The Citizens have succumbed to a disappointing, and surprising, defeat at the hands of Wigan Athletic, for the FA Cup, so they will do their best not to have the same fate here. Arsenal, on their turn, arrive here after a disappointing defeat in their own territory against Ostersunds, on Thursday night, for the Europa League.

Arsenal reaches this final stage of the EFL Cup after having defeated teams like Doncaster Rovers, Norwich City, West Ham and Chelsea. This is a competition where the team has very little success, having won the EFL Cup only twice in their history, with the last time still being in 1992/93, and these semi-finals are the furthest the team has reached since 2010/11, year they reached the final but ended up eliminated by Birmingham City.

The Gunners have been dreadful away from home this season, mustering just two wins from their last 11 matches on the road, in national competitions. The Gunners have some defensive difficulties, such as in defensive set-pieces and in defending counter-attacks, which might be a problem against a very strong team like Manchester City. The french coach might adopt a more defensive strategy here, trying to score goals mainly through counter-attacks, with Aubameyang leading the offensive line and being very dangerous in this kind of offensive transition.

In their last 5 official matches, Arsenal has a record of 2 victories and 3 defeats. This sequence of results started with a 3-1 defeat against Swansea City. This result was followed by a 5-1 victory against Everton, a 1-0 defeat against Tottenham, a 0-3 victory over Ostersunds, for the Europa League, and in their last match, a 1-2 defeat against Ostersunds, for the Europa League. Santi Cazorla and Lacazette are both out due to injury. Henrikh Mkhitaryan is cup-tied for the Gunners.

Probable Lineup: Ospina – Bellerín, Koscielny, Mustafi and Monreal – Xhaka, Ramsey and Wilshere – Iwobi, Aubameyang and Ozil.

efl cup 1Manchester City, on their turn, has reached the final of the competition after eliminating West Bromwich, Wolverhampton, Leicester City and Bristol City in the previous stages, and this may be their third EFL Cup in the last 5 years, since they have won the competition in 2013/14 and 2015/16. City have been fantastic this season, they have a 16-point safety at the top of the Premier League table, and after a huge win in Switzerland for the Champions League, beating FC Basel by 4-0, they are practically onto the next round of the competition. However, after being eliminated by Wigan Athletic in the round of 16 of the FA Cup, on Monday, Pep Guardiola will not ease and see this title as a mandatory achievement.

The Citizens have a fantastic style of play, they control the game in the opposition’s midfield, are offensively very versatile and stand out for the quality they show in attacking down the wings, for being very strong in finishing scoring chances and by creating scoring chances through individual skill. The aerial duels seem to be their main defensive problem. Kun Aguero is the team’s top scorer, with 29 goals scored in all competitions. Besides this, Pep Guardiola has won six of the seven major finals he has been involved in as a manager in his career and won them at an aggregate scoreline of 14-3.

In their last 5 official matches, Manchester City has a record of 3 victories, 1 draw and 1 defeat. This sequence of results started with a 3-0 victory against West Bromwich. This result was followed by a 1-1 draw away to Burnley, a 5-1 victory over Leicester City, a 0-4 victory against FC Basel, for the Champions League, and in their last match, a 1-0 defeat against Wigan Athletic. Fabian Delph is suspended after being sent off in the FA Cup last weekend, and Mendy is out due to injury.

Probable Lineup: Bravo – Walker, Stones, Otamendi and Zinchenko – Fernandinho, Bruyne and Silva – Bernardo Silva, Aguero and Sané.

Arsenal has won 3 of the last 8 directo confrontations, tying 3 and losing the remaining 2.

Manchester City 3-1 Arsenal
Premier League 2017/18
Arsenal 2-1(a.p.) Manchester City
FA Cup 16/17
Arsenal 2-2 Manchester City
Premier League 2016/17
Manchester City 2-1 Arsenal
Premier League 2016/17
Manchester City 2-2 Arsenal
Premier League 2015/16
Arsenal 2-1 Manchester City
Premier League 2015/16
Manchester City 0-2 Arsenal
Premier League 2014/15
Arsenal 2-2 Manchester City
Premier League 2014/15

Manchester City are big favorites to win the trophy on Sunday afternoon. However, Arsenal are a talented team in the attacking process, and Aubameyang is a danger to any defensive sector, which means Manchester City might not have an easy task here.

Betting Preview Odd Bookmaker Success
Manchester City to Win 1.53 Bet365
  • Country: England
  • Stadium: Emirates
  • City: Londres
  • Establishment: 1886

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Manchester City
  • Country: England
  • Stadium: Etihad
  • City: Manchester
  • Establishment: 1880

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Fábio Mota
  • Predictions made 174
  • Average Odds used 1.76
  • Predictions right 99
  • Predictions wrong 65
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