Strategy to bet on your favorite team
Regarding sports betting, as a rule, bettors have plenty information and statistical data available to analyze before betting. Sport, players, injuries, weather conditions, odds analyze and much more are all crucial for a strong betting strategy. Regarding betting on your favourite team, you probably have read many statistics and experts comments arguing that betting continuously on your favourite team is almost the same as losing money in the long term. Although you may win most of your bets, by dealing with low odds will eventually lead you to lose money. However, there are different ways to bet in your favourite team without losing your bets, being this the exact theme we are about to present in this tutorial.
Betting in favourite teams
When you bet on a favourite independently of the sport or event, you are simply placing your money in the one considered by the bookmakers as the favourite to win the match. This happens due to the amount of money that usually is placed in the favourite teams, which makes the odds considerably low. However, more importantly than the amount of money you place on a favourite, it is to understand if the odds’ prices are fair, or if it will change considerably as soon as the match begins. We have talked exactly about this in the “Live VS pre match betting strategy”.
We know that a favourite has more chances to win at the end of the match, therefore, we need to correctly evaluate the bookmakers offers, in order to set the price for which we are willing to accept that same offer. In order to set that price, we only need to do the following questions:
- Do you believe that the bookmaker’s initial offered odds are fair, considering this favourite may win the match?
- Do you believe the two bookmaker’s initial offered odds are too low, and therefore the best strategy is to bet on live?
Lets see an example:
Lets imagine you selected 5 favourites with initial odds of £1.25, and bet £100 for each match.
- Match 1 – Win +£25
- Match 2 – Win +£25
- Match 3 – Win +£25
- Match 4 – Win +£25
- Match 5 – Lost – £100
At the end of 5 bets of 100£ with an initial odd of 1.25, we have 4 bets won and 1 lost.
4 wins at £25 each = £100 profit
1 loss at 100£ = £100 loss
After 5 different sports bets, we don’t have any profit or loss. This means that even with very low odds it is possible not to lose any money. Adding to this, your strategy to bet on favourites should be limited enough for the results to be more appealing than the previous example mentioned. Keep in mind that 90% bettors lose money in the long term on sports betting. Many bettors run as fast as they can for odds around 1.20 or 1.30 since they are extremely low, which doesn’t justify the bet risk. This is a wrong idea in sports betting.
The favourites are favourites because everyone expects them to win, and as a rule the betting markets reflect this favouritism with low odds. There will be times where a favourite will not win, however most of times, it wins. Therefore, betting on favourites may represent an excellent opportunity for you to increase your betting bankroll.
In order to have profit on favourites in the long term, it is required to have a strong and thoughtful betting strategy on favourites. This means you can’t bet on all favourites available, but instead correctly analyze all matches and only bet on the ones you don’t have any doubt about the end result. Additionally, you should always question the offered odds in pre match and decide if those are fair or if it is better to let start the match and then bet on live.
Example of a football match
Spain plays a friendly international against Australia. Spain, being the favourite is winning the match and is set by the bookmakers with a £1.20 initial odd. Studying all match odds and analyzing particularly the teams, we conclude that Spain will win the match, however a £1.20 odd is too low and unattractive. A £1.4 odd would be much more appealing. In order to get such an odd, Spain will have to start the match slowly and with the match progress, both teams’ odds will vary. At the half time teams are tied 0-0 and we get a £1.4 bet.
If you correctly analyze a match, from basketball to football, you can benefit from your knowledge, as this example shows.
Applying the on live betting concept
Let’s now imagine we won’t accept initial odds, and that we will bet on live as soon as the match starts, in order to take advantage of the previous presented concept. Lets assume that all 5 bets were on favourite teams and all had odds of £1.50.
- Match 1 – Win +£50
- Match 2 – Win +£50
- Match 3 – Win +£50
- Match 4 – Win +£50
- Match 5 – Lost – £100
As the total, our profit is £100, which represent a return on investment around 20%. An excellent result for which you could be proud. The difference of this method is in the odds and on the way you analyze the initial bookmakers’ offered odds. Taking advantage of these odds and from the knowledge you have after a detailed match analysis, you can easily take advantage of the on live markets to rise your odds, as we seen in the last example.
If you notice, the difference between the 1.25 and 1.5 odds is that in the first case you don’t win money and in the second you achieved a 20% return on investment. And all this because the bookmakers initial odds offered were too low, and therefore, we took advantage of the on live market, hopping odds would rise, allowing to capitalize the investment. Don’t be afraid of bet on your favourites. However, it is important that you have a thoughtful strategy to do it, in order to maximize the most from those matches, without damaging your bankroll.
Enjoy your bets!