A Value Bet is basically an exacerbated odd that a certain bookmaker attributes to a specific event. If we imagine a football match between Manchester and Chelsea, where Manchester is in a best shape than Chelsea, first in the Premier League and playing at Old Trafford, the odds for Manchester winning will be, probably, very low. However, if we faced an odd very above expectations, we will be facing a Value Bet.
How to calculate a Value Bet?
Basically, a Value Bet is a bookmaker submitted stake. When a specific bookmaker calculates incorrectly a specific winning odd, exacerbating its value, it is considered a Value Bet, and therefore, an excellent opportunity to place lots of money at stake. Lets see an example:
Manchester winning: 1.65 share
Chelsea winning: 2.10 share
By using statistics to determine Manchester winning odds, in a good shape and playing at home, probably we would have an odd around 75%/80% for Manchester to win, while bookmaker odds are around 60,6%:
1/Manchester share=1/1.65=60,6% http://sildenafilcitrateotc.com/
With this, we quickly understand that Manchester winning odd is being underestimated by the bookmaker, while in fact, it should be around pretty lower numbers (odds should be 1/75%= 1,33 or 1/80%= 1,25). In this situation, we are facing a Value Bet, where the bookmaker underestimated Manchester winning potential at home, offering an exacerbated odd for this event.
Who to find a Value Bet?
The most difficult part of this whole process, is in fact find a Value Bet. In order to so, most bettors use updated statistics from all events you can imagine, to fully understand a certain event/ result that is being wrongly calculated by the bookmakers, or not. It is also possible to find a Value Bet, using a odd proof between bookies. For instance, by calculating World 2014 bets, we can find many discrepancies, that means many interesting opportunities and true Value Bets are there for you to explore!
In case you want to better your strategies with Value Bets, consider to create an Excel worksheet where you can make many statistics regarding football teams, for instance, has the team shape, winnings percentage at home, winning percentages in direct confronts with other teams and other specifics that may help you to find a Value Bet easily.
Having in mind that bookmakers have pretty evolved statistical tools, regarding football teams shape and performance, it is very important that you do your homework in order to easily find a Value Bet, in a bookmaker slip-up or neglect moment by underestimating a team’s victory.
Enjoy your bets!
